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The Future of British Influence in the Islamic Republic of Iran a Security Approach on the Horizon of 2025 | ||
| فصلنامه آفاق امنیت | ||
| Article 4, Volume 12, Issue 44, October 2019, Pages 102-123 PDF (708.45 K) | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| Authors | ||
| Massoud Ali Husseini* 1; Sasan Zar’e2; Mahdi Ali Kazemi3; Milad Gazerani4; Amir Hussein Zarafati5 | ||
| 1Corresponding author: master of human resource management, Imam Hussein Comprehensive University | ||
| 2Assistant professor at Imam Hussein University | ||
| 3Master of Industrial engineering, system planning and analysis | ||
| 4Master of International law | ||
| 5Student of master’s degree in international law, Azad University, Science and Research Unit | ||
| Receive Date: 24 July 2019, Revise Date: 06 April 2020, Accept Date: 06 April 2020 | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Iran has always suffered from an unpleasant experience in its relations with the England. The United Kingdom always regulates its relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran through three approaches: European, British-American (Anglo-American), and English. Given the tensions and differences between Iran and the United States over the past three decades and the lack of formal diplomatic relations between the two countries, and due to the close and special ties between England and America, the Anglo-American influence on the England’s policy toward Iran has been considerable. This research employs a mixed method including trend analysis and scenario writing with the aim of studying the future of the British influence on the Islamic Republic of Iran on the horizon of 2025. To this end, we have studied the influence of this country since the Islamic Revolution of Iran in 1978, and the events, incidents and interactions between Iran and England in the years since then. The British influence in Iran through a security approach based on economic, political, religious and cultural-social axes in the same period were criticized and the significance of these four components was investigated. Finally, based on investigations related to Iran's security environment from 2017 to 2025, several major scenarios were designed, including optimistic, neutral and outlook in the form of opportunities and challenges to change in Iran's strategic environment, change in Iran's strategic regional environment, conflict management models and interactive patterns in terms of British influence in Iran. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| trend analysis; influence; England; security; the Islamic Republic of Iran | ||
| References | ||
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- Pacinelli, A. (2009) Statistical Modeling: From Time Series to Simulation, In: Gordon, T. J., & Glenn, J. C., (Eds.), Futures research methodology. Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University. Version 3.
- Solomon Richard H. and Quinney Nigel. (2010); American Negotiation Behaviour, Washington: United States institute for Peace. | ||
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