News

 Statistics

Number of Journals34
Number of Issues1,306
Number of Articles9,427
Article View9,189,266
PDF Download5,621,868
Shafiei Seyfabadi, M. (2020). Explaining the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists of and the futures Studies of Iran’s counter measures. Electronic and Cyber Defense, 9(34), 1-36.
Mohsen Shafiei Seyfabadi. "Explaining the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists of and the futures Studies of Iran’s counter measures". Electronic and Cyber Defense, 9, 34, 2020, 1-36.
Shafiei Seyfabadi, M. (2020). 'Explaining the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists of and the futures Studies of Iran’s counter measures', Electronic and Cyber Defense, 9(34), pp. 1-36.
Shafiei Seyfabadi, M. Explaining the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists of and the futures Studies of Iran’s counter measures. Electronic and Cyber Defense, 2020; 9(34): 1-36.

Explaining the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists of and the futures Studies of Iran’s counter measures

فصلنامه پژوهش های حفاظتی امنیتی
Volume 9, Issue 34, May 2020, Pages 1-36    PDF (7.41 M)
Document Type: Original Article
Author
Mohsen Shafiei Seyfabadi*
Assistant Professor of Political Science, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Human and Social Science, Ardakan University, Yazd.
Receive Date: 10 December 2020,  Revise Date: 25 December 2020,  Accept Date: 15 January 2021 
Abstract
The main purpose of this article is to explain the project of the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists and future studies of Iran’s counter measures in the framework of Hugh Miall’s theory and based on the method of futures Studies (scenario writing). The main question in this regard is “what are the reasons behind the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists by Israel’s intelligence services and what will be the future reaction of the Islamic republic of Iran to these sabotage operations, especially the assassination of martyr Mohsen Fakhrizade?” Based on the obtained results, terrorist operations are the results of identity, structural and institutional backgrounds, historical relations and also post- Islamic revolution’s arms development, which have moved the conflicts between the two sides involved at the regional and global levels from mediation to confrontation. Given the persistence of sabotage operations of Israel’s regime and based on the futures studies method, four scenarios can be predicted in the form of three main categories in relation to the future of Iran’s counter measures, which are: The favorable future: Destructing the Israel’s regime and the decline of its regional power; Possible future: 1) to Reduce or stop the inspections of nuclear facilities and increasing the uranium enrichment; 2) Strategic patience and activation of Iran’s pro-regional forces; The possible future: to take avenge from Israel in occupied Golan.
Keywords
Futures Studies; Israel; Iran; assassination; nuclear scientists; hugh miall
References
 

  1. احمدی، وحیده (1395)، «راهبرد اسرائیل در مورد برجام»، فصلنامة مطالعات راهبردی، سال نوزدهم، شمارة اول، بهار 1395، شماره 1، صص 159 - 162.
  2. امام خامنه‌ای (مدّظلّه‌العالی)، سید علی (1394)، «مهم‌ترین جملة رهبر انقلاب در سال 94 انتخاب شد»، https://farsi.khamenei.ir/news-content?id=32622.
  3. امام خامنه‌ای (مدّظلّه‌العالی)، سید علی (1398)، «محو اسرائیل؛ یعنی صاحبان اصلی فلسطین بتوانند دولت را انتخاب کنند»، 24/8/198، https://mfa.gov.ir/portal/newsview/568190/.
  4. امام خمینی (رحمت‌الله‌علیه)، سید روح‌الله (1367)، «صحیفة نور»، جلد 21، تهران: موسسه تنظیم و نشر آثار امام خمینی (رحمت‌الله‌علیه).
  5. رسولی‌ثانی‌آبادی، الهام (1389)، «مبانی بیناذهنی هویت نظام جمهوری اسلامی ایران»، مطالعات راهبردی، سال 14، شمارة 51، صص 85 - 114.
  6. رسولی‌ثانی‌آبادی، الهام (1391)، «بررسی هویت نظام جمهوری اسلامی ایران از منظر سازه‌انگاری»، علوم سیاسی، سال 15، شمارة 58، صص 177 - 200.
  7. سلیمانی (سردار شهید)، قاسم (1399)، «پیدا و پنهان جنگ 33 روزه به روایت سرلشکر سلیمانی»‌، نقل‌شده در سایت: https://jahanesanat.ir/.
8.گابی، اشکناز (1399)، «بهتر است اقدامات ما دربارة ایران ناگفته بماند»، http://irdiplomacy.ir/fa/news/1992915.

  1. مجیدی، محمدرضا؛ ثمودی پیله‌رود، علی‌رضا (1393)، «تلاش‌های رژیم صهیونیستی برای برسازی برنامة هسته‌ای ایران به‌عنوان یک تهدید امنیتی»، پژوهش‌های انقلاب اسلامی پاییز 1393، شماره 10، صص 191 - 214.
  2. محترم، ایمان؛ خالقی، ابوالفتح (1393)، «پیشگیری از ترور متخصصان دانش هسته‌ای از گذر افزایش هزینه‌های وضعی»، مطالعات بین‌المللی پلیس، پاییز 1393، سال پنجم، شمارة 3، صص 24 - 44.
  3. مظفری، علی (1388)، «آینده‌پژوهی، بستر عبور از مرزهای دانش»، فصلنامة پژوهشنامه نظم و امنیت انتظامی، دوره اول، زمستان، شمارة 8، صص 25 - 48.
 

ب) منابع لاتین

  1. Barzilal, Amnon (20015). "A More Tangible Threat from Iran", Haaretz.
  2. Bowen, Wyn Q. & Kidd, Joanna (2004). "The Iranian Nuclear Challenge", International Affairs, Vol.80, No.2, pp. 76 – 257, at p.264.
  3. Brzezinski, Zbigniew & Gates, Robert (2004). "Iran: Time for a New Approach", New York: Council on Foreign Relations.
  4. Byman, Daniel & Chubin, Shahram (2001). "Anoushiravan Ehteshami and Jerrold Green, Iran Security Policy in the Post-Revolutionary Era", Santa Monica, CA: RAND.
  5. Chermack, Thomas J. (2005). "The Role of Systems Theory in Scenario Planning; Human Resource Development Review", T Chermack - Journal of Futures Studies, 12 Feb 2004, Available at: jfsdigital.org.
  6. Dayan, Yoni (2013). "Iranians support nuclear program despite sanctions", https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/iran/nuclear/.
  7. Ehteshami, Anoushiravan (2000). "Tehran’s Tocsin, Washington Quarterly", Vol.23, No.3, pp. 6 – 171, at p.172.
  8. Enav, Peter (2004). "Israel May Not Be Able to Destroy Nukes", Guardian, 28 Sept. 2004.
  9. Fassihi, Farnaz, Bergman, Ronen, Sanger, David E., & Schmitt, Eric (2020). "Live Updates: Iran's Top Nuclear Scientist Killed in Attack, State Media Say", The New York Times.
  10. Fassihi, Farnaz, Sanger, David E., Schmitt, Eric & Bergman, Ronen (2020). "Iran’s Top Nuclear Scientist Killed in Ambush", State Media Say, Published Nov. 27, 2020.
  11. Gardner, Frank (2020). "Mohsen Fakhrizadeh assassination: How will Iran respond?", https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55128979.
  12. Hafezi, Parisa (2014). "Iran holds atomic fete with UN deadline looming", Reuters, news.un.org.
  13. Hasan, Mehdi (2017). "Iran's nuclear scientists are not being assassinated; They are being murdered", The Guardian. Archived from the original on 17 January 2016.
  14. Karimi, Nasser & Gambrell, Jon (2020). "Iran says Israel killed military nuclear scientist remotely", The Associated Press. Archived from the original on 1 December 2020.
  15. Khan, Saira (2010). "The study case: Iran, Iran and nuclear weapons", Rutledge Global Security Studies. pp. 47 - 48.
  16. King, Laura, (2004). "Israel May Have Iran in Its Sights", Los Angeles Times, 23 Oct. 2004.
  17. Landler، Mark (2018). "Trump Withdraws U.S. From 'One-Sided' Iran Nuclear Deal", The New York Times.
  18. Lourdes, Garcia-Navarro (2009). "For Israel, A Nuclear Iran Poses Existential Threat", NPR. Support for Israeli Attack.
  19. Martin, J. (1982). "Stories and Scripts in Organizational Settings; in A. Hastrof & A. Isen (Eds)", New York: Elsevier.
  20. Melman, Yossi (2020). "Fakhirzadeh was a prof' of physics at Imam Hussein university but he also led the clandestine Amad plan checking the feasibility of a nuclear bomb & led its weaponization efforts", https://twitter.com/yossi_melman/status/1332345675451944962?lang=en
  21. Miall, H. (1990). "Contemporary Conflict Resolution", Cambridge: Polity.
  22. Miall, H. (2004). "Conflict Transformation: A Multi-Dimensional Task", Berlin: VS Verlag fur Sozialwissenschaften.
  23. Miall, H (2007)."Emergent Conflict and Peaceful Change", Basingstoke: Palgrave.
  24. Mostaghim, Ramin, Tawfeeq, Mohammed & Walsh, Nick Paton (2020). "Top nuclear scientist was assassinated with help of 'satellite device,' Iranian media reports", CNN. Archived from the original on 6 December 2020.
  25. Netanyahu, Benjamin (2019). "Europe might ignore Iran threat until nuclear missiles hit", https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49001946. 16 July 2019.
  26. Perkovich, George (2003). "Dealing with Iran Nuclear Challenge", Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
  27. Pike, John (2012). "Simorgh", Globalsecurity.org.
  28. Press TV (2012). "Iran has technology to make heavy aircraft: Vahidi", Archived from the original on 27 November 2017.
  29. Rene Beres, Louis (2004). "Israel’s Strategic Future: The Final Report of Project Daniel", NATIV Online, Vol. 3, No.2.
  30. Rosen, James (2010). "Lindsey Graham says U.S. must prepare to attack Iran", https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politicsgovernment/article24593767.
  31. Sanchez, Ray (2015). "Rouhani calls sanctions against Iran illegal and crime against humanity", CNN.
  32. Tidy, Joanna (2007). "The Social Construction of Identity: Israeli Foreign Policy and the 2006 War in Lebanon", School of Sociology, Politics and International Studies, University of Bristol, Working Paper No. 05 - 08, pp.1 - 77.
  33. Tisdall, Simon (2004). "Diplomacy Sidelined as U.S. Targets Iran", Guardian.
  34. Writers, Staff (2015). "Israel behind assassinations of Iran nuclear scientists", Ya'alon hints, The Jerusalem Post.
  35. Ya'alon, Moshe (2015). "Tel Aviv behind assassinations of Iran nuclear scientists", https://en.irna.ir/news/81713153/Ya-alon-Tel-Aviv-behind-assassinations-of-Iran-nuclear-scientists.
 

Statistics
Article View: 721
PDF Download: 490