News

 Statistics

Number of Journals34
Number of Issues1,306
Number of Articles9,428
Article View9,191,228
PDF Download5,622,140
towhidian, A., jafari zad, A., parazhang,, A., hosnavi, R. (2022). Compilation of future scenarios of Iran-Turkey security relations with scenario wizard method. Electronic and Cyber Defense, 3(3), 83-113.
Ali towhidian; alireza jafari zad; Amir Abbas parazhang,; reza hosnavi. "Compilation of future scenarios of Iran-Turkey security relations with scenario wizard method". Electronic and Cyber Defense, 3, 3, 2022, 83-113.
towhidian, A., jafari zad, A., parazhang,, A., hosnavi, R. (2022). 'Compilation of future scenarios of Iran-Turkey security relations with scenario wizard method', Electronic and Cyber Defense, 3(3), pp. 83-113.
towhidian, A., jafari zad, A., parazhang,, A., hosnavi, R. Compilation of future scenarios of Iran-Turkey security relations with scenario wizard method. Electronic and Cyber Defense, 2022; 3(3): 83-113.

Compilation of future scenarios of Iran-Turkey security relations with scenario wizard method

آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی
Volume 3, Issue 3, January 2023, Pages 83-113    PDF (1.56 M)
Document Type: Original Article
Authors
Ali towhidian* 1; alireza jafari zad2; Amir Abbas parazhang,3; reza hosnavi4
1Graduated with a master's degree in crisis management, Malik Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
2Graduated with a master's degree in crisis management from Malik Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
3Graduated with a master's degree in entrepreneurship management, Iran University of Science and Technology.
4Professor, Department of Industrial Management and Engineering, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
Receive Date: 04 September 2022,  Revise Date: 10 November 2022,  Accept Date: 17 January 2023 
Abstract
The present study deals with the development of future scenarios of Iran-Turkey security relations using Scenario Wizard. So that by assessing needs and conducting this type of strategic research, policy makers and decision makers in Iran-Turkey relations can think of alternative options for decision making. The current type of research is applied and its investigation method is exploratory using new future research methods. In this research, based on its nature, the necessary information is collected in two ways: library method and questionnaire. Due to the fact that Micmac software and Scenario Wizard are used for data analysis, the type of questionnaire is closed and in the form of a matrix of mutual effects and surveying the opinions of experts and specialists. Finally, 7 key factors are used as basic factors in the wizard scenario. And according to numerous analyzes and using the panel of experts, the number of 4 possible scenarios as output scenarios of the scenario wizard is as follows; The first scenario: dancing with bears, the second scenario: everyone who is far away from his origin / questioning his past, the third scenario: one to the shoe... one to the nail, the fourth scenario: this is the way you are going to Turkestan. In the end, it is concluded that among the 4 possible scenarios, the first scenario: "Dancing with Bears" is more desirable, because it leads to greater convergence of Turkey with Russia and Turkey's entry into the front of revisionist countries in the international system, which leads to the reduction of relations with the United States and the creation of confrontation. And it will benefit the Islamic Republic of Iran. It is worth mentioning that the strategic and macro policies of Iran towards all its land neighbors are always the policy of interaction, friendship and brotherhood.
Keywords
Iran; Turkey; future research; scenario writing; scenario wizard
References
  1. صفوی، سید یحیی؛ متقی، ابراهیم؛ حاتمی، حمیدرضا؛ مرادیان، محسن و یزدانی، محسن. (1399). عوامل واگرایی و همگرایی اقتصادی مؤثر بر روابط جمهوری اسلامی ایران با ترکیه. فصلنامه مطالعات دفاعی استراتژیک، 79: 28-5.
  2. قائم پناه، صمد. (1390). تضاد و همکاری در روابط ایران و ترکیه پس از جنگ سرد (1989 -2008). فصلنامه مطالعات سیاسی، 3 (11)، 82– 51.
  3. کولایی، الهه و نبوی، سید مهدی. (1399). عوامل فرهنگی مؤثر بر روابط ایران و ترکیه. فصلنامه مطالعات بنیادین و کاربردی جهان اسلام، 2 (2)، 160-184.
  4. گل محمدی، ولی. (1398). چشم‌انداز روابط ایران و ترکیه در سال 1397. بازیابی در 29 آذر 1398. سایت مؤسسه مطالعات ایران و اوراسیا (ایراس)، قابل‌دسترسی در: http://www.iras.ir/fa/doc/article/3618
  5. نبوی، سید مهدی؛ صفوی، سید حمزه و کوشکی، محمدصادق. (1399). تدوین سناریوهای روابط ایران و ترکیه در افق 1408. آینده‌پژوهی دفاعی، 5(18)، 37-7.
  6. همتیان مهدی زاده، جمال؛ زارع، ساسان؛ عرب بافرانی، محمدرضا و قاسمی امام‌زاده، رضا. (1399). سناریو نگاری آینده دانشگاه مطلوب در افق 1404. نشریه علمی آینده‌پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی، 1(2)، 69-35.
  7. یزدانی، حسن. (1395). طراحی الگوی روابط دفاعی - امنیتی جمهوری اسلامی ایران با کشور ترکیه. رساله دکتری، استاد راهنما؛ دکتر صفوی، دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی، تهران.
  8. یارمحمدیان، حسین؛ امیدی، علی و ابراهیمی، شهروز. )1396(. دامنه و افق مناسبات ایران و ترکیه (2021-2011)، فصلنامه تحقیقات سیاسی و بین‌المللی، 31، 57–86.
  9. Charounatki, Mariana. (2018). Iran and Turkey,International and Regional Engagement in the MiddleEast. New York: I.B.Tauris & Co. Ltd.
  10. Dator, J. (1996). The knowledge base of futures studies.
  11. Hen-Tov, Elliot )2011(. Asymmetry of interests: Iran-Turkey relations since 1979. PhD Thesis, Princeton University, USA.
  12. Ringland, G., & Schwartz, P. P. (1998). Scenario planning: managing for the future. John Wiley & Sons.
  13. Schoemaker, P.J. H. (1995). Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking. Sloan Management Review, 37(2), 25-40.
  14. Verso, M., & Agnelli, G. (2003). Venous thromboembolism associated with long-term use of central venous catheters in cancer patients. Journal of Clinical Oncology, 21(19), 3665-3675.
Statistics
Article View: 288
PDF Download: 368