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کارزار بین جنگها و ضد استراتژی آن | ||
سیاست دفاعی | ||
دوره 34، شماره 130، مرداد 1404، صفحه 135-157 اصل مقاله (1.1 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
نویسنده | ||
محمدحسین صفایی* | ||
دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی | ||
تاریخ دریافت: 23 اسفند 1402، تاریخ بازنگری: 13 مرداد 1403، تاریخ پذیرش: 26 خرداد 1404 | ||
چکیده | ||
کارزار بین جنگها یا CBW اصطلاحی است که به مجموعه فعالیتهای تهاجمی ارتش اسرائیل در دههی گذشته و عمدتا در سوریه طی سالهای 2013 تا 2023 اطلاق میشود. آنچه در 2013 بهعنوان اقدامات مشخص و هدفمند با دامنهای محدود آغاز شد، هماکنون به یک کارزار گسترده از نظر فیزیکی و جغرافیایی تبدیل شده است. اگرچه CBW تواناییهای پیشرفتهای را در عملیاتهای اطلاعاتی و هوایی برای ارتش اسرائیل به ارمغان داشت اما پس از یک دهه اجرا و با توجه به تغییرات منطقه از جمله تثبیت دولت بشار اسد، آب شدن یخ روابط بین جمهوری اسلامی ایران و رقبای دیرینه (مثل عربستان) و ادامهی دوری آمریکا از منطقه نیاز به بازنگری و بهروز رسانی مزایای این کمپین در اسرائیل احساس میشود؛ آن هم در شرایطی که دوباره و بعد از عملیات طوفانالاقصی خطر آغاز نبرد چند جبههای برای این رژیم پیشآمده است. سوال اصلی که ما در پی پاسخ به آن هستیم این است که آیا نتایج کارزاربین جنگها هنوز به سود اسرائیل هست؟ این مطالعه با بهرهگیری از روش تحلیل محتوا نتیجه میگیرد که سیاست فعلی در CBW نه تنها عامل ایجاد محور مقاومت بوده بلکه سلسله اقدامات این کمپین تنها پاسخی جزئی به مقاومت ارائه میکند. طبق یافتهها تداوم اجرای این راهبرد تمایل گروههای مقاومت برای پذیرش خطراتی که میتواند منجر به تشدید تنش با اسرائیل شود را در آینده تقویت میکند؛ | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
کارزار بین جنگها؛ ضد کارزار بین جنگها؛ رژیم صهیونیستی و جمهوری اسلامی ایران | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
The campaign between wars and its counter-strategy | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
mohammad hosein safaei | ||
National Defense University | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
Campaign between wars or CBW is a term that refers to the set of offensive activities of the Israeli army in the last decade, mainly in Syria during the years 2013 to 2023. What started in 2013 as specific and targeted measures with a limited scope, has now turned into a broad campaign in terms of physical and geographical aspects. Although CBW brought advanced capabilities in intelligence and aerial operations to the Israeli army, but after a decade of implementation and considering the changes in the region, including the stabilization of Bashar al-Assad's regime, the thawing of relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Long-time enemies (such as Saudi Arabia) and the continuing distance of the United States from the region, the need to review and update the benefits of this campaign is felt in Israel; And that is in the situation that again and after the Al-Aqsa storm operation, there is a risk of starting a multi-front war for this regime. The main question that we seek to answer is whether the results of the wars are still in favor of Israel? Using the content analysis method, this study concludes that the current policy in CBW is not only the cause of creating the axis of resistance, but the series of actions of this campaign only provide a partial response to the resistance. According to the findings, the continuation of the implementation of this strategy strengthens the resistance groups' | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
campaign between wars, anti-campaign between wars, Zionist regime and Islamic Republic of Iran | ||
مراجع | ||
Amos Perimutter, Military and Politics in Israel (London:Frank Cass.1969). Nitzan Alon and Dana Preisler-Swery, “Running a Marathon and Putting a Spoke in the Wheels of the Enemy: The Campaign Between Wars in the IDF,” Bein Haktavim 22-23 (2019) [Hebrew].
CHARLES D. FREILICH (2018) Israeli National Security, A New Strategy for an Era of Change, Oxford University Press. David Ben.Gurion,”Israel Among Nations”. Government Yearbook 5713 (Jarusalem:State of Israel,1952/53) Encyclopedia of the Holocaust by Israel Gutman (1990-01-03) Gartner (1999) Scott Sigmund, Strategic Assessment in War, Yale University Press.
J.S. Sauboorah (2009) The Articulation of War: An Assessment of British Military Doctrine, PhD thesis University of Reading. James S. Corum (1992) The Roots of Blitzkrieg: Hans Von Seeckt and German Military Reform, University Press of Kansas, 1992 - Germany. Bret Stephens, “The Man Who Humbled Qassim Suleimani,” New York Times, January 11, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/2p9648d7 Bret Stephens, “The Man Who Humbled Qassim Suleimani,” New York Times, January 11, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/2p9648d7 Britain Great (2004) Ministry of Defense Publishing House, p. 50 [Hebrew]. Efraim Inbar and Eitan Shamir, “Mowing the Lawn”: Israel’s Strategy for Coping with Ongoing Unsolvable Conflicts, Begin-Sadat Center at Bar-Ilan University, 2013, p. 5, https://tinyurl.com/ycxpn4ff [Hebrew]. Interview with the Head of the Military Intelligence Directorate, Conference on “Iran, Israel and the Shiite Axis in 2023: A Year of Conflict?” Institute for National Security Studies, November 21, 2022, https://www.inss.org.il/he/event/iran-2023 [Hebrew]. Mahmed Badir, “The Campaign Between Wars: A New Failed Israeli Strategy,” al-Akhbar, May 24, 2016, https://al-akhbar.com/Politics/214192 [Arabic]. Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, “Hezbollah’s Involvement in the Civil War in Syria,” https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/20521 Minister of Defense Barak Hints Re: Syria: “When We Say Something, We Mean It,” N12, February 3, 2013, https://tinyurl.com/yckafwyv [Hebrew]. Moshe Dayan, “The Reprisal Operations as a Means of Ensuring Peace,” 1955, https://lib. cet.ac.il/pages/item.asp?item=10856 [Hebrew]. ORLICKÁ JANA (2016)Strategic culture: a reliable tool of analysis for EU security developments, Kultura Bezpieczeństwa, Nauka – Praktyka – Refleksje, Nr 21, 2016 (193–209), ISSN 2299-4033. Preisler-Swery, D. (2017). What can be learned from the process of developing the operation concept (2006). Bein Haktavim, 10, 9-50 [in Hebrew]. Roi Kais, “Israel Attacks Weapons Convoy in Syrian Territory,” Ynet, January 30, 2013, https://tinyurl.com/mvs26w7j [Hebrew]. Ron Ben Yeshi (2020 february 18) https://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-5680296,00 The following section draws on Freilich 2012. Ron Ben-Yishai, “The Iranians Are Playing with Fire,” Ynet, December 8, 2014, https:// tinyurl.com/y5uedyyw [Hebrew]. | ||
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