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آینده جایگاه جمهوریاسلامی ایران به عنوان یک کنشگر جهانی: رویکرد آیندهپژوهی تکاملی درافق سال 2050 میلادی | ||
| آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی | ||
| مقاله 5، دوره 6، شماره 4، دی 1404، صفحه 125-166 اصل مقاله (1.17 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| امین صادقی بکیانی* 1؛ ابراهیم طاهری2 | ||
| 1دکتری علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران. | ||
| 2دانشیار، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده حقوق، علوم سیاسی و تاریخ، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران. | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 14 بهمن 1403، تاریخ بازنگری: 17 شهریور 1404، تاریخ پذیرش: 12 آذر 1404 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در نظام بینالمللی عصر حاضر، جمعیت یکی از عناصر بنیادین تعیینکننده قدرت یک کشور محسوب میشود. این مقاله با رویکردی توصیفی-تحلیلی و با استفاده از روش آیندهپژوهی تکاملی، به ارزیابی نقش جمعیت ایران در تبدیل شدن به یک کنشگر جهانی در افق 2050 میپردازد. جامعه آماری شامل قدرتهای بزرگ و نوظهور جهانی (چین، هند، ایالات متحده، روسیه، ژاپن، عربستان سعودی، ترکیه، عراق و ایران) است که با استفاده از روش نمونهگیری هدفمند و ابزارهای مقایسهای و سناریوهای آیندهپژوهی، دادهها تحلیل شدهاند. یافتهها نشان میدهند که ایران در افق 2050 تنها به جمعیتی حدود 99 میلیون نفری و GDPای معادل 700 میلیارد دلاری دست خواهد یافت، که در مقایسه با کشورهایی مثل چین، هند و ایالات متحده وضعیت ضعیفی دارد. ایران بدون مدیریت صحیح از "پنجره فرصت جمعیتی" و بدون توسعه اقتصادی و نظامی، نمیتواند در بلندمدت به یک کنشگر جهانی تبدیل شود. این مطالعه نشان میدهد که فقط کشورهایی که دارای جمعیت زیاد و ثروت فراوان هستند قادر به تبدیل شدن به قدرتهای بزرگ هستند. ایران با وجود موقعیت ژئوپلیتیکی استراتژیک و شبکههای دیپلماتیک در غرب آسیا، در بهترین سناریو به یک قدرت منطقهای قویتر تبدیل خواهد شد، اما این امر به معنای رسیدن به جایگاه یک کنشگر جهانی نیست. بنابراین، ایران نیازمند برنامهریزی دقیق و سرمایهگذاری گسترده در حوزههای اقتصادی، فناورانه و نظامی است تا بتواند از ظرفیتهای موجود در جمعیت و موقعیت جغرافیایی خود استفاده کند. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| جمعیت؛ نظریه چرخه قدرت؛ آیندهپژوهی تکاملی؛ قدرت منطقهای؛ کنشگر جهانی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Future Position of the Islamic Republic of Iran as a Global Actor: An Evolutionary Foresight Approach Toward 2050 | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Amin SadeqiBakyani1؛ ebrahim taheri2 | ||
| 1PhD in Political Science, University of Shiraz, Shiraz, Iran. | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Law, Political Science and History, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| In the current international system, population is one of the fundamental elements determining a country’s power status. This article, using an evolutionary future studies approach, assesses the role of Iran's population in its potential transformation into a global actor by 2050. The statistical population includes major and emerging global powers—China, India, the United States, Russia, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iraq, and Iran—selected through purposive sampling. Data were analyzed using comparative methods and scenario-based forecasting. Findings indicate that by 2050, Iran will have a population of approximately 99 million and a GDP of about $700 billion, which remains significantly lower than countries like China, India, and the United States. Without proper management of its demographic window of opportunity and significant development in economic and military sectors, Iran cannot achieve global actor status. This study shows that only nations with both large populations and substantial wealth can become dominant powers. Despite its strategic geopolitical position and regional diplomatic networks in West Asia, Iran will most likely remain a strong regional power rather than a global actor. Therefore, comprehensive planning and investment in technological and economic development are essential for Iran to leverage its demographic and geographic potential effectively. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Population, Power Cycle Theory, Evolutionary Futures Approach, Regional Power, Global Actor | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 157 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 39 |
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