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نقش راهبردی اقتصاد خلاق در جبران نوسان درآمد نفتی ایران در افق 1414: راهکارهای سیاستی از تجارب جهانی | ||
| آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی | ||
| مقاله 3، دوره 1405، شماره 1، فروردین 1405، صفحه 61-91 اصل مقاله (712.14 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.47176/fsir.2026.1362 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| زهرا شاقلانی پور1؛ حمید عزیزمحمدلو* 2؛ بابک محمدحسینی3؛ سید سپهر قاضی نوری4؛ حاکم قاسمی5 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری آیندهپژوهی. دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران | ||
| 2دانشیار، گروه حسابداری، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران. | ||
| 3دانشیار، گروه فیزیک، دانشکده علوم پایه، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران. | ||
| 4استاد، گروه مدیریت فناوری اطلاعات، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران | ||
| 5گروه علوم سیاسی. دانشکده علوم اجتماعی. دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره). قزوین، ایران | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 27 تیر 1404، تاریخ بازنگری: 28 مرداد 1404، تاریخ پذیرش: 12 بهمن 1404 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| هدف این پژوهش، بررسی نقش اقتصاد خلاق در جبران نوسانات درآمد نفتمحور ایران و ارائه راهکارهای سیاستی برای تنوعبخشی اقتصادی تا افق 1414 است. این مطالعه با رویکرد توصیفی-تحلیلی و روش قیاسی، از دادههای ثانویه اسنادی و کتابخانهای استفاده کرده است. جامعه آماری شامل دادههای اقتصاد خلاق ایران و تجارب کشورهای پیشرو و در حال رشد (کره جنوبی، بریتانیا، استرالیا، ژاپن، امارات و آمریکا) بوده و نمونهگیری بهصورت هدفمند انجام شد. ابزار گردآوری دادهها شامل تحلیل گزارشهای معتبر (یونسکو، آنکتاد، بانک جهانی و گزارشهای رسمی ملی) و اسناد داخلی بود. روایی دادهها با استناد به منابع معتبر و پایایی از طریق مقایسه با مطالعات مشابه تأیید شد. تحلیل دادهها با روشهای کمی و کیفی انجام گرفت. یافتهها نشان داد که در سال 1402، که بهترین سال برای اقتصاد خلاق تا کنون است، سهم اقتصاد خلاق ایران ازGDP حدود ۲.۸۳٪ بوده است. با توجه به اینکه اقتصاد گردشگری در سالهای بعد دچار کاهش شده است، این رقم به حدود 2 درصد میرسد. بررسی تجارب کشورهای منتخب نیز نشان داد که با سرمایهگذاری راهبردی در حوزههای فرهنگی، دیجیتال و صنایع خلاق و با سیاستگذاری مناسب، میتوان به جایگزینی پایدار برای جبران نوسان درآمدهای نفتی (حدود 2% از GDP در سال 1402) دست یافت. با توجه به تجارب کشورهای منتخب، سهم اقتصاد خلاق از GDP میتواند تا سال 1414 به 5% افزایش یابد و جایگزین مناسبی برای این کسری درآمد باشد. راهکارهای پیشنهادی بر اساس تجارب جهانی، شامل ایجاد مناطق آزاد خلاق، حمایت از استارتاپها، تقویت گردشگری فرهنگی، توسعه زیرساختهای دیجیتال و صادرات محصولات خلاقانه، شبکهسازی و اصلاح قوانین مالکیت فکری، و توسعه برنامههای آموزشی تخصصی است. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| اقتصاد خلاق؛ تنوعبخشی اقتصادی؛ درآمد نفتی؛ سیاستگذاری؛ گردشگری فرهنگی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Strategic Role of the Creative Economy in Offsetting Iran's Oil Revenue Fluctuations by 2035: Policy Solutions from Global Experiences | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Zahra Shaghelani pour1؛ Hamid Azizmohammadlou2؛ Babak Mohammadhosseini3؛ Sepehr Ghazinoory4؛ Hakem Ghasemi5 | ||
| 1PhD Candidate in Futures Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran. | ||
| 3Associate Professor, Department of Physics, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran. | ||
| 4Professor, Department of Information Technology Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 5Department of Political Science, Imam Khomeini International University , Qazvin, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| This study aims to investigate the role of the creative economy in compensating for fluctuations in Iran's oil-dependent revenue and to provide policy solutions for economic diversification by 2035. This descriptive-analytical study, employing a deductive approach, utilized secondary documentary and library data. The statistical population included data on Iran's creative economy and experiences of leading and emerging countries (South Korea, the UK, Australia, Japan, UAE, and the USA), with purposive sampling. Data collection tools comprised content analysis of reliable reports and domestic documents. Data validity was ensured by referencing credible sources, and reliability was confirmed through comparison with similar studies. Data analysis was conducted using quantitative and qualitative methods (content analysis and comparative analysis) and Excel software. The findings indicate that in 2023, which marked the best year for the creative economy to date, Iran's creative economy contributed approximately 2.83% to GDP. However, due to a subsequent decline in the tourism economy, this figure is estimated to decrease to around 2%. A review of experiences from South Korea, the UK, Australia, the USA, the United Arab Emirates, and Japan also showed that strategic investment in cultural, digital, and creative industries, coupled with appropriate policymaking, can provide a sustainable alternative to compensate for oil revenue fluctuations (approximately 2% of GDP in 2023). The creative economy's share of GDP could increase to 5% by 2035, serving as a suitable substitute for this revenue deficit caused by oil price fluctuations. Proposed solutions, based on global experiences, include establishing creative free zones, supporting startups, strengthening cultural tourism, developing digital infrastructure and creative product exports, international networking, reforming intellectual property laws, and developing specialized educational programs. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Creative economy, economic diversification, oil revenue, policymaking, cultural tourism, innovation | ||
| مراجع | ||
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