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چگونگی بازتولید قدرت طالبان در افغانستان بر مبنای تئوری کاتاستروف-چارچوب | ||
| سیاست دفاعی | ||
| مقاله 4، دوره 31، شماره 121 - شماره پیاپی 4، اسفند 1401، صفحه 83-123 اصل مقاله (1.87 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| محسن شفیعی سیف آبادی* | ||
| گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه اردکان، اردکان، یزد، ایران | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 18 مهر 1400، تاریخ بازنگری: 12 دی 1400، تاریخ پذیرش: 10 اسفند 1401 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| هدف اصلی مقاله حاضر بررسی چگونگی بازتولید قدرت طالبان در افغانستان بر مبنای تئوری کاتاستروف «رنه تام» و نظریه چارچوب «اسنو» و «بنفورد» و همچنین ارائه راهکارهای دفاع از مرزهای شرق ایران است. در همین راستا سؤالی که مطرح می‌شود عبارت است از اینکه «طالبان چگونه و با کاربست چه چارچوب‌هایی توانست در مدت زمان اندک بر بخش وسیعی از جغرافیای افغانستان مسلط شود؟ و راهکارهای حفاظت از مرزهای شرقی کشور در شرایط کنونی چیست؟». نتایج حاصل از تحقیق که با روش توصیفی-تحلیلی و همچنین با تلفیق نظریه «چارچوب» و «کاتاستروف» و طراحی مدل مفهومی جدید بدست آمده، نشان دهنده این است که نیروهای طالبان بر مبنای چارچوب تشخیصی توانستند پیش فهم‌ها وذهنیت خود را به بخش قابل توجهی از اجتماع افغانستان قابل پذیرش نمایند.براساس چارچوب پیش‌آگاهی، طالبان راه حل اصلی را در تشکیل حکومت و مفصلبندی ابعاد اجتماعی، فرهنگی،اقتصادی و سیاسی شهروندان در شریعت اسلامی مورد تفسیر خود دانسته و بر مبنای چارچوب انگیزشی در شرایط فعلی برخلاف گذشته، با وقایعی چون خروج نیروهای ناتو و بخصوص آمریکا، کمک‌های نظامی-اقتصادی کشورهایی چون پاکستان و توسل به وعده های جذاب هم انگیزه و توان تسلط کامل را باز یافته و هم کاربرد مذاکره را در کنار یورش مسلحانه لازم می‌داند.مجموعه این عامل فرصت لازمت جهت تشکیل مجدد دولت طالبان را فراهم ساخته است.دراین شرایط مهمترین راهکارهای حافظتی ایران در پاسداری از مرزهای شرقی عبارتند از:تقویت نیروهای مرزهای شرقی، صبر استراتژیک و پرهیز از کنش نظامی، بالابردن اشرافیت اطلاعاتی و تلاش در متقاعد کردن طالبان در حفظ آرامش و انعطاف لازم. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| طالبان؛ افغانستان؛ ایران؛ کاتاستروف؛ چارچوب | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| How to reproduce Taliban power in Afghanistan Based on the Catastrophe- Catastrophe theory | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| mohsen shafiee | ||
| Department of Political Science, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Ardakan University, Ardakan, Yazd, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The main purpose of this article is to study how the Taliban's power in Afghanistan is reproduced based on the René Tom catastrophic theory and the Snow and Benfour framework theory, as well as to provide solutions for defending Iran's eastern borders. In this regard, the question that arises is "How and by what frameworks did the Taliban manage to gain control of a large part of Afghanistan in a short period of time?" "And what are the solutions to protect the country's eastern borders in the current situation " ?The results of the study, show that Based on the forecasting framework, the Taliban interpreted the main solution in forming the government and articulating the social, cultural, economic and political dimensions of the citizens in Islamic law, and based on the motivational framework in the current situation, unlike in the past, with events such as NATO withdrawal. And the United States, in particular, sees the military-economic aid of countries like Pakistan and the recourse to attractive promises both to regain the impetus and power of complete domination and to necessitate the use of negotiation alongside armed aggression. This set of factors has provided the necessary opportunity to re-form the Taliban government. Under these circumstances, Iran's most important security measures in protecting the eastern borders are: strengthening the eastern border forces, strategic patience and avoiding military action, raising the intelligence aristocracy and trying to persuade the Taliban to maintain the necessary calm and flexibility. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Taliban, Afghanistan, Iran, catastrophe, Catastrophe theory | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 233 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 419 |
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