تعداد نشریات | 38 |
تعداد شمارهها | 1,240 |
تعداد مقالات | 8,994 |
تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 7,845,077 |
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 4,706,669 |
بررسی فرصت های ج. ا.ایران در فضای رقابت های سیاسی - نظامی چین و آمریکا در افق 2030 | ||
سیاست دفاعی | ||
مقاله 2، دوره 32، شماره 122 - شماره پیاپی 4، تیر 1402، صفحه 43-79 اصل مقاله (1.15 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
نویسنده | ||
قدرت الله بهبودی نژاد* | ||
دکتری مطالعات بین الملل دانشگاه جواهر لعل نهرو | ||
تاریخ دریافت: 22 آبان 1400، تاریخ بازنگری: 18 اردیبهشت 1401، تاریخ پذیرش: 11 تیر 1402 | ||
چکیده | ||
روابط چین و ایران ریشه در همکاری محدود عملگرایانه دارد اما در سالهای اخیر به مشارکتی تبدیل شده است که بیشتر با نظم بین المللی تحت رهبری ایالات متحده مخالف است. پکن مخالفت تهران با ایالات متحده را سبب افزایش نفوذ جهانی خود می داند. اقدامات ایران در خاورمیانه و نیز تلاش های ایالات متحده برای تغییر تمرکز خود بر ایندو-پاسیفیک موضوع را پیچیده تر می کند. ایران چین را به عنوان عامل حیاتی اقتصادی و حامی دیپلماتیک خود در برابر فشارهای ایالات متحده می داند. از نظر اقتصادی ، چین بزرگترین شریک تجاری ایران، وارد کننده برجسته انرژی و سرمایه گذار برتر میباشد. توافقنامه همکاری 25 ساله که در مارس 2021 امضا شد، آخرین نشان از تمایل دو طرف برای هماهنگی بیشتر است.سوال این است که چه فرصت هایی برای ایران در فضای رقابتی جین و امریکا در آینده ممکن است بوجود بیاید ؟این پژوهش،اهداف دیپلماتیک و سیاسی -اقتصادی پکن درقبال تهران و فضاهای بوجود آمده ناشی از رقابت بین دو ابرقدرت برای ایران و نیز محدودیت های ژئوپلیتیکی قابل توجه در این رابطه را مورد بررسی قرار می دهد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
: ایران؛ چین؛ امریکا؛ ژئو اکونومیک | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
the study of Iran's opportunities in the context of Sino-US political-military rivalries on the horizon of 2030 | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Ghodratollah Behboudi nejad | ||
graduated Ph.D. in International Studies from Jawaharlal Nehru University | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
The China-Iran relationship is rooted in limited pragmatic cooperation but has evolved in recent years into a partnership more pointedly opposed to the U.S.-led international order. Iranian destabilizing actions in the Middle East also complicate the United States’ efforts to shift its focus to the Indo-Pacific. For its part, Iran views China as a critical economic lifeline and diplomatic supporter against pressure from the United States. A 25-year cooperation agreement signed in March 2021is the latest indication of the two sides’ willingness to coordinate more closely. Economically, China is Iran’s top trading partner, a leading energy importer, and a top investor. The question is What opportunities may arise for Iran in the competitive environment of China and the United States in the future? This study examines the diplomatic and political-economic goals of Beijing towards Tehran and the spaces created by the rivalry between the two superpowers for Iran, as well as significant geopolitical constraints in this regard. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
UAV, Iran, China, America, Geoeconomics | ||
مراجع | ||
زهرا وجدی دستگردی وحسین دهکردی(1397)"بررسی حضور چین در خلیج فارس از منظر سیاسی و اقتصادی با تاکید بر روابط چین و ایران"، همایش جامعه علمی ایرانیان مقیم چین، بررسی فرایندها و دستاوردهای توسعه در چین،
https://www.sid.ir/fa/seminar/ViewPaper.aspx?ID=94755
مختاری، حسین(1397) " بیین مفهوم ژئواکونومی اقتصاد ژئوپلیتیکی و توصیه هایی برای ایران،فصلنامه ژئوپلیتیک ـ سال چهاردهم، شماره دوم، تابستان 1397 -82 .
AidData (2017), “Global Chinese Official Finance Database” available at: https://www.aiddata.org/data/chinese-global-official-finance-dataset.
Alterman, Jon (2019), “Chinese and Russian Influence in the Middle East” Jon written testimony for the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa, and International Terrorism, Hearing on Chinese and Russian Influence in the Middle East, May 9, 2019, 5.
American Enterprise Institute (2020), “China Global Investment Tracker.” American Enterprise Institute, available at:https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker.
Borger, J., & Wintour, P. (2021, February 4), “Biden Announces End to US Support for
Saudi-Led Offensive in Yemen”, The Guardian, available in:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/04/us-end-support-saudi-led-operations
-yemen-humanitarian-crisis.
Bozorgmehr, Sharafedin (2016), “Iran’s Leader Says Never Trusted the West, Seeks Closer Ties with China,” Reuters, January 23, 2016. available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-china/irans-leader-says-never-trusted-the-west-seeks-closer-ties-with-china-idUSKCN0V109V.
China’s Foreign Ministry (2020), Foreign Ministry China Spokesperson Geng Shuang’s Regular Press Conference on January 7, 2020, January 7, 2020. Foreign Ministry China available at: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/t1730049.shtml.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2020) Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang’s Regular Press Conference on March 16, 2020. May16, 2020. Foreign Ministry China available at:https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/t1756582.
Connor, Tom (2020), “Iran Backs China, calls to Investigate U.S. ‘Creation and Spread’ of Coronavirus,” Newsweek, March 18, 2020. https://www.newsweek.com/iran-back-china-calls-us-coronavirus-1493041; Patrick Tucker, “Iranian, Russia, Chinese Media Push COVID-19 ‘Bioweapon’ Conspiracies,” Defense One, March 10, 2020. available at:https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2020/03/iran-andrussian-media-push-bioweapon-conspiracies-amid-covid19-outbreak/163669/.
China General Administration (2021), “Customs via CEIC Database”. China Ministry of Commerce via CEIC Database. available at:http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/topic/engcc.shtml.
China Ministry of Commerce (2021) “China FTA Network”, China Ministry of Commerce available at:http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/topic/engcc.shtml.
Calabrese, John (2020) “China’s Maritime Silk Road and the Middle East: Tacking against the Wind,” Middle East Institute, May 19, 2020, Availbable at: https://www.mei.edu/publications/chinas-maritime-silk-road-and-middle-east-tacking-against-wind.
Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran (2021), via “CEIC Database”, Availbable at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/iran/external-debt; World Bank, “Islamic Republic of Iran,” 2021. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iran/overview.
Calabrese, John (2021), ““China and Iran –An Unequal Friendship,” Middle East Institute, February 27, 2021, Availbable at: https://www.mei.edu/publications/chinas-maritime-silk-road-and-middle-east-tacking-against-wind.
Connor, Tom (2019) “Iran Says Russia and China Are Offering Fighter Jets in Show of Support against U.S.,” Newsweek, August 29, 2019. https://www.newsweek.com/iran-russia-china-fighter-jets-1456848.
Congressional Research Service (2020) “U.N. Ban on Iranian Arms Transfers and Sanctions Snapback,” Congressional Research Service October 16, 2020. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/IF11429.pdf.
China Military Online (2018) “Senior Chinese Military Leaders Meet with Iranian Defense Minister,” China Military Online September 10, 2018. http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/view/2018-09/10/content_9277330.htm.
CGTN (2021) “China Supports Holding Meetings with JCPOA Participants and U.S.,” March 1, 2021. CGTN Institue availablr at:https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-03-01.
Congressional Research Service (CRS) (2020, November 23). “Arms Sales in the Middle
East: Trends and analytical Perspectives for U.S. Policy”. available in:
https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R44984.pdf..
Dalga Khatinoglu (2020), “Iran’s Real Oil Exports Might Be Much Higher than Estimated: Tanker-Tracking Firm,” Radio Farda, August 9, 2020. https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-s-real-oil-exports-might-be-much-higher-than-estimated/30773893.html.
Dettoni, Jacopo (2020), “The Biden Fix: Iran,” FDI Intelligence, November 17, 2020. Available at:https://www.fdiintelligence.com/article/79077.
Erika, Holmquist and Johan, Englund (2020), “China and Iran – An Unequal Friendship,” Swedish Defense Research Agency, May 2020.
Fassihi, Farnaz and Steven, Lee M CGTN eyers(2021), “China, with $400 Billion Iran Deal, Could Deepen Influence in Mideast,” New York Times, March 27, 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/27/world/middleeast/china-iran-deal.html.
Financial Tribune (2019), “China Reopens $1.9b L/C for Tehran-Qom-Isfahan Railroad Project,” December 18, 2019. https://financialtribune.com/articles/domestic-economy/101287/china-reopens-19b-lc-for-tehran-qom-isfahan-railroad-project.
Ford, Lindsey and Hill, Max (2019) “China’s Evolving Ties with the Middle East,” Asia Society, August 8, 2019. https://asiasociety.org/asias-new-pivot/china.
Fulton, Jonathan (2020) “U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, hearing on U.S.-China Relations”, Enduring Problems and Emerging Challenges, September 9, 2020, 4.
Gehrke, Joel (2019) “White House Blames China for Iranian Missile Threat,” Washington Examiner, May 8, 2019. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/white-house-blames-china-for-iranian-missile-threat.
Haider, Syed Fazl (2020) “The Strategic Implications of Chinese-Iranian-Russian Naval Drills in the Indian Ocean,” China Brief, January 17, 2020. https://jamestown.org/program/the-strategic-implications-of-chinese-iranian-russian-naval-drills-in-the-indian-ocean.
Huang, Eustance (2018). “Chinese Investment in Israeli Tech Is Growing, and It’s ‘Quite Welcome’ for Some,” CNBC, July 19, 2018. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/19/chinese-investment-in-israel-technology-is-growing-expert-says.html; Mustafa Abu Sneineh, “Chinese Investment in Haifa Port Could Compromise US-Israel Intelligence Sharing: Report,” Middle East Eye, February 1, 2021. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-us-china-investment-intelligence-compromise-haifa-port.
Harold, S., & Nader, A. (2012), “China and Iran: Economic, Political, and Military Relations”, Santa Monica: RAND. Retrieved March 01, 2020, from https://www- jstororg.zorac.aub.aau.dk/stable/pdf/10.7249/j.ctt1q60w8.7.pdf? refreqid=excelsior%3A479d2ec224535ca7deafc758bb78628b.
Izadi, F., & Khodaee, E. (2017). “The Iran Factor in U.S.-China Relations: Guarded Engagement vs. SoftBalancing”, China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 3, pp. 299–323. Retrieved March 01, 2020, from https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/S2377740017500105.
Johanson, D. (2019), “Becoming a ‘Responsible Power’? China’s New Role during the JCPOA Negotiations”. In D. Johanson, J. Li, & T. Wu, New Perspectives on China’s Relations with the World: National, Transnational and International (pp. 159-173). Bristol: E-International Relations Publishing. Retrieved March 01, 2020, from http://www.e-ir.info/wpcontent/uploads/2019/03/New-Perspectives-on-China%E2%80%99s-Relations-with-theWorld-E-IR.pdf#page=171.
Kerr, P. K., & Katzman, K. (2018). “Iran Nuclear Agreementand U.S. Exit”. Congressional Research Service. Retrieved March 01, 2020, from http://goodtimesweb.org/diplomacy/2019/R43333.pdf.
Lavender Au and Benjamin Wilhelm (2012) “U.S. Sanctions on Iran Boost China’s Plans to Internationalize the Yuan,” World Politics Review, October 14, 2020. https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trend-lines/29135/u-s-sanctions-on-iran-boost-china-s-plans-to-internationalize-the-yuan.
Liming, Hua (2020). “The Iran Nuclear Issue and China’s Middle East Diplomacy (伊朗核问题与中国中东外交),” Arab World Studies 6(November 2014): 13–15.
Lincy, Valerie (2021) written testimony for “U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission”, Hearing on China’s Nuclear Forces, June10, 2021. https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2021-06/Valerie_Lincy_Testimony.pdf; “Adherence to and Compliance with Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and Commitmentspdf.
Luttwak, E. N. (1990, Summer). “From Geopolitics to Geo-Economics: Logic of Conflict, Grammar ofCommerce”. The National Interest, pp. 17-23. Retrieved April 12, 2020, from https://www.jstor.org/stable/42894676.
Luttwak, E. N. (2000). Turbo-Capitalism: Winners and Losers in the Global Economy. New York: Harper Perennial.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China (2020) “China-Arab States Cooperation Forum Holds Ninth Ministerial Conference”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China July 6, 2020.
Mehrdad, Ezzatullah (2021) “Moscow Conference on Afghan Peace: Two Steps Back for Women, One Step Forward for Peace,” Diplomat, March 23, 2021. https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/moscow-conference-on-afghan-peace-two-steps-back-for-women-one-step-forward-for-peace.
Miller, Wali (2020) “Trade Data Reveals Iran’s Aluminum Supply-Chain from China, India, Guinea,” Sayari, July 16, 2020. https://sayari.com/blog/trade-data-reveals-irans-aluminum-supply-chain/; Bozorgmehr Sharafedin and Pratima Desai, “Special Report.
National Iranian Oil Co (2018) “West Karoun Output Keeps Rising,” National Iranian Oil September 3, 2018.
http://en.nioc.ir/Portal/home/?news/81365/71248/286799/West-Karoun-Output-Keeps-Rising.
Nikkei (2021) “China's Oil Imports from Iran Hit New High, Curbing OPEC Options,” OPEC, March 30, 2021. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Commodities/China-s-oil-imports-from-Iran-hit-new-high-curbing-OPEC-options.
Nye, J. S. (2020). Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump. New York: Oxford Press.
Parsi, T. (2021). “Toward an Inclusive Security Arrangement in the Persian Gulf”. Quincy Brief No. 7, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
Press TV (2018) “Iran to Sign First Major Post-Sanction Oil Deals This Month,” March 3, 2018.https://www.presstv.com/DetailFr/2018/03/03/554192/Iran-oil-deals-IPC-North-Azadegan; Financial Tribune, “Yadavaran Oilfield Total Output Tops 100 Million Barrels.
Reuters (2021) “Foreign Funds for Iran’s Oil Sector a Top Priority: Oil Minister,” Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iranoil-zanganeh/foreign-funds-for-irans-oil-sector-a-top-priority-oil-minister-idUSKCN1B00T0; Nordea Trade, “Foreign Direct Investment(FDI) in Iran,” 2021. https://www.nordeatrade.com/en/explore-new-market/iran/investment.
Reed, Tristan and Trubetskoy, Alexandr (2019) “Assessing the Value of Market Access from Belt and Road Projects,” World Bank Group, April 2019. http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/333001554988427234/pdf.
Roblin, Sebastien (2020) “Meet the Qiam Missile Iran Used to Blast a U.S. Airbase,” National Interest, January 11, 2020. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/meet-qiam-missile-iran-used-blast-us-airbase-112911.
Ross, D., & Satloff, R. (2021). “Defining a Mature, Balanced Relationship with Saudi Arabia: An Urgent Task for the Biden Administration” (Policy Notes 6). Washington Institute for Near East Policy, February 22. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/defining-mature-balanced-relationship-saudi-arabia-urgent-task-biden-administration.
Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE) (2018, September 21). “The Military Cost of
Defending Global Oil Supply”. Issue Brief, SAFE.
http://secureenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Military-Cost-of-Defending-theGlobal-Oil-Supply.-Sep.-18.-2018.pdf.
Shana (2017) “Iran Welcomes Chinese Private Investors in Oil Projects,” Shana, December 13, 2017. https://en.shana.ir/news/280215/Iran-welcomesChinese-Private-Investors-in-Oil-Projects.
Statista (2014) “Breakdown of China’s Crude Oil Imports in 2014, by Source Country,” 2015. Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/221765/chenese-oil-imports-by-country/.
Stein, Jeff (2015) “How China H. elped Iran Go Nuclear,” Newsweek, July 14, 2015. https://www.newsweek.com/2015/07/31/iran-nuclear-dealchina-karl-lee-353591.html.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) (2020, March 9). “USA and France Dramatically Increase Major Arms Exports; Saudi Arabia Is Largest Arms Importer”. SIPRI.https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2020/usa-and-france-dramatically-increasemajor-arms-exports-saudi-arabia-largest-arms-importer-says.
TASS (2021) “Russian, Iranian Navies Kick Off Joint Drills in Indian Ocean,” February 15, 2021. https://tass.com/defense/1256465; Jared Szuba, “Iran, Russia, China to Conduct Joint Naval Exercise in Indian Ocean,” Al-Monitor, February 9, 2021. https://www.almonitor.com/pulse/originals/2021/02/iran-russia-china-naval-drill.html.
Trading Economics (2020) “Iran Current Account,” 2020. https://tradingeconomics.com/iran/current-account; Bijan Khajepour, “Iran Turns to Bonds to Solve Budget Crisis,” Al-Monitor, June 3, 2020. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/06/iran-budget-deficit-economy-bonds-rial.html.
U.S. Department of Defense(2019) Indo-Pacific Strategy Report, June 1, 2019. U.S. Department of Defense https://media.defense.gov/2019/Jul/01/2002152311/-1/-1/1/DEPARTMENT-OF-DEFENSE-INDO-PACIFIC-STRATEGY-REPORT-2019.PDF.
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Iran, January 7, 2022.EIA, https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/IRN; Worldometer, “Iran Population,” Jan 21, 2022. https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/iran-population/.
United States Institute of Peace (2020) “Last among Equals: Iran - China Relations,” October 6, 2020. United States Institute of Peace https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2020/oct/06/last-among-equals-iran-china-relations; China Ministry of Commerce via CEIC Database; American Enterprise Institute, “China Global Investment Tracker.” https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/.
UN Conference on Trade and Development (2020) “General Profile: Iran (Islamic Republic of),” UN Conference on Trade and Development, November 6, 2020. https://unctadstat.unctad.org/countryprofile/generalprofile/en-gb/364/index.html; Nordea Trade, “Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Iran,” 2021. https://www.nordeatrade.com/en/explore-new-market/iran/investment.
U.S. Department of State (2017), “Iran, North Korea, and Syria Nonproliferation Act Sanctions”, U.S. Department of State, March 24, 2017. https://2017-2021.state.gov/iran-north-korea-and-syria-nonproliferation-act-sanctions/index.html.
Verma, Nidhi and Zhang, Shu (2021) “Iran Slips Record Volume of Oil into China, Reaches out to Asian Clients for Trade Resumption,” Reuters, March 8, 2021. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iran-asia-analysis/analysis-iran-slips-record-volume-of-oil-into-china-reaches-out-to-asian-clients-for-trade-resumption-idUSKBN2B00OL.
Witte, Carice and Aluf, Dale (2021). “Drawing the Curtain on China–Israel Cooperation?” East Asia Forum, January 26, 2021. https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/01/26/drawing-the-curtain-on-china-israel-cooperation/; Reuters, “Israel, U.S. Near Deal to Exclude China from Israeli 5G Networks: U.S. Official,” August 14, 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-usa-5g-china-idUSKCN25A2CF.
Xu, Muyu and Aizhu, Chen (2020) “China’s Primary Energy Use to Peak in 2035 – CNPC Research,” Reuters, December 17, 2020.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-energy-cnpc-forecast/chinas-primary-energy-use-to-peak-in-2035-cnpc-researchidUSKBN28R0SE.
Xinhua (2016), “China, Iran Upgrade Ties to Carry Forward Millennia-Old Friendship,” Xinhua, January 25, 2016. http://www.scio.gov.cn/32618/Document/1465769/1465769.htm.
Zhou, Oceana (2021) “China’s 2020 Crude Imports from US Surge 211% to 396,000 b/d, Valued at $6.28 Bil,” S&P Global, January 20, 2021, available at: https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/012021-china-data-2020-crude-imports-from-us-surge-211-to-396000-bd-valued-at-628-bil. | ||
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 282 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 284 |