![سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی دانشگاه امام حسین (ع)](./data/logo.png)
تعداد نشریات | 36 |
تعداد شمارهها | 1,192 |
تعداد مقالات | 8,578 |
تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 6,987,423 |
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 4,031,156 |
بررسی روند سیکل قدرت آمریکا و تاثیر آن بر نظم جهانی | ||
مطالعات راهبردی آمریکا | ||
دوره 3، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 9، دی 1402، صفحه 11-45 اصل مقاله (1.13 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.27834743/ASS.2212.1133.1 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
محمد کرمپوری* 1؛ محسن اسلامی2 | ||
1دانشجوی دکترای علوم سیاسی (اندیشه سیاسی)، دانشگاه فردوسی، مشهد، ایران | ||
2دانشیار گروه روابط بینالملل، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران | ||
تاریخ دریافت: 20 آذر 1401، تاریخ بازنگری: 08 شهریور 1402، تاریخ پذیرش: 10 دی 1402 | ||
چکیده | ||
سیکل قدرت نمایی از افول و ظهور قدرتهای بزرگ را نشان میدهد و به تبع نظم جهانی قدرت موردنظر نیز با افول سیکل قدرت تضعیف میشود. هدف از ارائه این مقاله جستوجوی ارتباط میان سیکل قدرت با نظم جهانی آمریکا است. مسئله موردنظر این است که سیکل قدرت آمریکا چه تاثیری بر نظم جهانی آمریکا دارد و سوالی که مطرحشده اینکه چگونه سیکل قدرت آمریکا بر نظم جهانی آمریکا درصحنه بینالمللی تاثیر گذاشته است؟ بر مبنای فرضیه، اگر قدرت آمریکا افول کند، این نظم جهانی نیز با آن افول خواهد کرد. افول نسبی آمریکا در منحنی چرخه قدرت و افول نسبی نظم نوین جهانی حاکی از آن است که نظام بینالمللی به سمت پویایی چندقطبی حرکت میکند. نتایج نیز نشان میدهد هرچقدر آمریکا در سیکل قدرت روند افول را طی میکند، نظم نوین جهانی در مقیاس سیکل قدرت نیز ضعیفتر میشود. عواملی مانند، بحران مالی سال2008 و حضور آمریکا در جنگهای پرهزینه بعد از یازده سپتامبر و همچنین به علت سهم نسبی قدرت در سیستم جهانی با صعود قدرتهای جهانی مانند هند، چین و ژاپن و ظهور قدرتهای منطقهای و فرا منطقهای مانند ایران و روسیه در سیستم بینالمللی، آمریکا در چرخه قدرت با افول نسبی مواجه شده است که نظم نوین جهانی را نیز با افول نسبی مواجه نموده است. روش پژوهش مورداستفاده در این تحقیق، روش همبستگی میباشد که مبتنی بر رویکرد توصیفی _ تحلیلی است و روش گردآوری دادهها نیز کتابخانهای و اسنادی میباشد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
آمریکا؛ نظم جهانی؛ چین؛ هند؛ سیکل قدرت | ||
مراجع | ||
سنجابی، علیرضا. (1384). روش شناسی در علم سیاست وروابط بین الملل. نشر قومس: تهران
آقایی، سید داوود. (1388). نقش و جایگاه شورای امنیت در نظم نوین جهانی. تهران: انتشارات سرای عدالت، چاپ اول.
خاکی، غلامرضا. (1378). روش تحقیق با رویکردی به پایان نامه نویسی. تهران: وزارت فرهنگ و آموزش عالی، مرکز تحقیقات علمی کشور: کانون فرهنگی انتشاراتی درایت.
جمشیدی، محمد و یزدانشناس، زکیه. (1399). نظریه چرخه قدرت و تحولات قدرت ایالات متحده: بستری برای تحلیل رفتار سیاست خارجی. فصلنامه ژئوپلیتیک.16(3)، 52-82.
ASISIAN, NJDEH. (2022). Iran, China, and the Future World Order: Unipolarity or Multipolarity.Alabama: Air University Press: Muir S. Fairchild Research Information Center Maxwell Air Force Base. Brown University. (2021). Costs of the 20-year war on terror: $8 trillion and 900,000 deaths, Access Date: September: https://www.brown.edu/news/2021-09-01/costsofwar BILMES, LINDA J. (2014). The Financial Legacy of Afghanistan and Iraq: How wartime Spending decisons will constrain future U.S. national security budgets. The economics of peace and security journal. Vol. 9, No. 1, pp.5-18. Bremmer, Ian. (2018). How the Financial Crisis Undermined America’s Place atop the Global Order?.Time, Access Date: September: https://time.com/5401647/america-global-order/ BURGA, SOLCYRE. (2022). What a Recession Actually Is and How to Know If the U.S Is Entering One, TIME, Access Date: JULY 28: https://time.com/6201205/what-is-a-recession-2022/ Cordesman, Anthony H. (2017). U.S Military Spending: The Cost of Wars. Csis, Access Date: July: https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs public/publication/170710_Cost_War_AHC.pdf Crawford, Neta. C. (2019). United States Budgetary Costs and Obligations of Post-9/11 WarsbthroughFY2020: $6.4Trillion. Watson Institute and Boston University’s Pardee Center. Access Date: https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2019/US%20Budgetary%20Costs%20of%20Wars%20November%202019.pdf?utm_source=Daily%20on%20Defense%20(2019%20TEMPLATE)_11/15/2019&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=WEX_Daily%20on%20Defense&rid=84648 Cassidy, John. (2018). The Real Cost of the 2008 Financial Crisis. The New Yorker, Access Date: September: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/09/17/the-real-cost-of-the-2008-financial-crisis Cox, Jeff. (2022). Fed raises interest rates half a point to highest level in 15 years. CNBC. Access Date: DEC 14: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/14/fed-rate-decision-december-2022.html Cordesman, Anthony. H. (2020). America’s Failed Strategy in the Middle East: Losing Iraq and the Gulf.CSIS. Access Date: Published January 2: https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/200122_Chair.Iraq_is_the_Prize.GH_.FinalV.pdf Da silva, Diego lope; Tian, Nan؛ Sudreau, lucie béraud; Marksteiner, alexandra and liangx, iao. (2022). TRENDS IN WORLD MILITARY EXPENDITURE, SIPRI Fact Sheet, Access Date: April: https://sipri.org/sites/default/files/202204/fs_2204_milex_2021_0.pdf Doran, Charles F. (2000). Confronting the Principles of the Power Cycle: Changing Systems Stvucture, Expectations, and Way. in Handbook of War Studies II, edited by Manus I. Midlarsky. United States of America: published by the University of Michigan press Doran, Charles. F and Parsons, Wes. (1980). War and the Cycle of Relative Power. The American Political Science Review. Vol. 74, No. 4, pp. 947-965. Doran, Charles F. (2012). Power Cycle Theory and the Ascendance of China: Peaceful or Stormy. SAIS Review. Vol. 32, No. 1, Winter-Spring, pp. 73-87. Doran, Charles F. (2000). Confronting the Principles of the Power Cycle: Changing Systems Structure, Expectations, and Way, United States of America. published by the University of Michigan press. Doran, C. F. (2003). Economics, Philosophy of History, and the “Single Dynamic” of Power Cycle Theory: Expectations, Competition, and Statecraft. International Political Science Review.Vol.24, No.1, pp13–49. Doran, Charles. F. (2015). Imperatives of European Security at Russia’s Critical Point on its Power Cycle. Stosunki Międzynarodowe – International Relations. t. 51, nr .2, pp.93-105, doi: 10.7366/020909612201504 HEIM, JACOB. L& MILLER, BENJAMIN. M. (2020). Measuring Power: Power Cycles, and the Risk of Great-Power War in the 21st Century. RAND Corporation, Access Date: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2989.html Hart, Melanie and Johnson, Blaine. (2019). Mapping China’s Global Governance Ambitions.Center for American Progress, Access Date: February: https://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/China-Global-Governance-2.pdf Hartley, Keith. (2020). DEFENCE ECONOMICS: Achievements and Challenges. Cambridge University Press. Herd, Graeme. (2021). The Causes and the Consequences of Strategic Failure in Afghanistan? The George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, Access Date: August 2021: https://www.marshallcenter.org/sites/default/files/files/2021-08/Security%20Insights%2068_Herd_0.pdf Ikenberry, G. John. (2022). Why American Power Endures: The U.S.-Led Order Isn’t in Declinel. Foreignaffairs, AccessDate: November/December: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/why-american-power-endures-us-led-order-isnt-in-decline-g-john-ikenberry Ikenberry, G. John. (2005). Power and liberal order: America’s postwar world order in transition, International Relations of the Asia-Pacific. Vol. 5, pp133–152. Jones, Seth. G. (2019). War by Proxy: Iran’s Growing Footprint in the Middle East. CSIS, Access Date: MARCH 2019: https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/190312_IranProxyWar_FINAL.pdf Institute for Economics and Peace. (2015). ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES of WAR on the U.S. ECONOMY. Access Date: https://www.economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/The-Economic-Consequences-of-War-on-US-Economy_0.pdf Kissane, Dylan. (2005). 2015 and the Rise of China, Power Cycle Analysis and the Implications for Australia. Security Challenges. Vol.1, No.1, pp 105-121. Kissane, Dylan. (2008). Forecasting the Storm: Power Cycle Theory and Conflict in the Major Power System. EUR POLIS. Issue .3, Edited and published by the: Centre for Political Analysis Department of Political Science Babes-Bolyai University. Kumar, sushil. (2003). Power Cycle Analysis of India, China, and Pakistan in Regional and Global Politics. International Political Science Review.Vol .24, No. 1, p113–122 Kagan, Robert. (2012). Not Fade Away: Against the Myth of American Decline. Brookings, Access Date: January: https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/not-fade-away-against-the-myth-of-american-decline/ Lahneman, W. J. (2003). Changing Power Cycles and Foreign Policy Role-power Realignments: Asia, Europe, and North America. International Political Science Review. vol.24, No.1, pp.97–111. Lynch, Marc. (2019). Power Matter for the Middle East? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Access Date: MARCH 19: https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/03/19/does-decline-of-u.s.-power-matter-for-middle-east-pub-78645 Michael Every and Teeuwe Mevissen. (2020). The World in 2030. London: © Rabobank. Access Date:https://economics.rabobank.com/globalassets/documents/2020/2020-aug-dec/sp20201009_every_mevissen_world_in_2030.pdf Mearsheimer, John J. (2019). Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal. International Order International Security.Vol.43, No. 4, Spring, pp. 7–50. Mukunda, Gautam. (2018). The Social and Political Costs of the Financial Crisis, 10 Years Later. Harward Business Review, Access Date: September: https://hbr.org/2018/09/the-social-and-political-costs-of-the-financial-crisis-10-years-later Nanto, Dick. K. (2009). The Global Financial Crisis: Foreign and Trade Policy Effects, Congressional Research Service. Access Date: April: https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R40496.pdf. National Security Strategy. (2022). The white house: wishington. Access Date: October: https://csis-website prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fspublic/publication/221014_NATIONAL_SECURITY.pdf? EGRrqXP0jXJooV_NJm_UpNmd_1gKBj6O Ryan, Mick. (2012). India – China in 2030: A Net Assessment of the Competition Between Two RisingPowers.AustrallianDefencecollege,AccessDate:December:https://espas.secure.europarl.europa.eu/orbis/sites/default/files/generated/document/en/India%20-%20China.pdf Rachman, Gideon. (2022). Russia and China’s plans for a new world order. FINANCIAL TIMES, Access Date: https://www.ft.com/content/d307ab6e-57b3-4007-9188-ec9717c60023 Rand. (2022). Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition Through the Eyes of Others, RAND CORPORATION. Santa Monica, Calif: Published by the RAND Corporation, Access Date: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR2700/RR2726z1/RAND_RR2726z1.pdf Rabinovitch, Simon. (2022). The American economy is set for a downturn, not a crisis. The Economist Group, Access Date: Nov 18: https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/the-american-economy-is-set-for-a-downturn-not-a-crisis Rivera, W. A. (2022). The Strategic Culture of Resistance Iranian Strategic Influence in Its Near Abroad, Journal of Advanced Military Studies Strategic Culture, Marine Corps University, Access Date: https://www.usmcu.edu/Portals/218/JAMS_SpecialIssueStrategicCultureofResistance.pdf Sciurba, Michele. (2022). New World Order? Could Be China’s Win. impakter, Access Date: August: https://impakter.com/new-world-order-chinas-win/ SIPRI (2022), TRENDS IN WORLD MILITARY EXPENDITURE 2021. Access Date: April: https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2022/world-military-expenditure-passes-2-trillion-first-time Thies, Clifford. F& Baum, Christopher. F. (2020). The Effect of War on Economic Growth.Cato Journal, Vol. 40, No. 1 (Winter 2020). p199-212. The World Bank. (2013). China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative Society. Washington DC: The World Bank. Tessman, B. F, & Chan, S. (2004). Power Cycles, Risk Propensity, and Great-Power Deterrence. Journal of Conflict Resolution.Vol.48, No. 2, pp. 131–153. Trading economics. (2023). United States Fed Funds Rate, Access Date: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate#:~:text=target%20in%202023.-,The%20Federal%20Reserve%20raised%20the%20fed%20funds%20rate%20by%2050bps,straight%20three%2Dquarter%20point%20increases The Economist Group. (2022). What does the Ukraine crisis mean for the US? Access Date: Apr 2022: https://www.eiu.com/n/what-does-the-ukraine-crisis-mean-for-the-us/# Wang, Henry Huiyao (2022). Could Reshaping the World Order Usher in the Return of Economic Globalization? Institute Montaigne, Access Date: SEPTEMBER: https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/analysis/could-reshaping-world-order-usher-return-economic-globalization | ||
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 216 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 210 |