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واکاوی علل عدم تطابق قوانین برنامه توسعه و بودجه سالیانه با استفاده از رویکرد دیمتل و نمودارهای علی-معلولی | ||
| پژوهش‌های راهبردی بودجه و مالیه | ||
| مقاله 3، دوره 5، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 18، تیر 1403، صفحه 77-104 اصل مقاله (1.52 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| محمدرضا ذوالفقاریان1؛ سعید حاجی‌حسنی* 2؛ حسین آماده3 | ||
| 1علوم تصمیم و سیستم های پیچیده، معارف اسلامی و مدیریت، امام صادق علیه‌اسلام، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2گروه علوم تصمیم و سیستم‌های پیچیده_ دانشکده معارف اسلامی و مدیریت- دانشگاه امام صادق علیه السلام | ||
| 3دانشگاه امام صادق (علیه السلام) | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 24 اسفند 1402، تاریخ بازنگری: 06 خرداد 1403، تاریخ پذیرش: 06 تیر 1403 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| تطابق قوانین برنامه توسعه و بودجه سالیانه به دلیل افق زمانی میان‌مدت و کوتاه‌مدت آن‌ها و در نتیجه شدت تأثیرشان بر عملکرد دولت‌ها دارای اهمیت زیادی است. با توجه به عدم مطابقت میان این‌دو قانون درکشور، تحقیق حاضر به واکاوی علل عدم تطابق قوانین برنامه توسعه و بودجه سالیانه و ارائه پیشنهاداتی برای اصلاح رویه‌های موجود پرداخته‌است. در این تحقیق به‌همین‌منظور، از فرایندی هشت مرحله‌ای متشکل از روش‌های دیمتل، تحلیل مضمون و نمودارهای علی معلولی برای تبیین روابط میان علل عدم تطابق قوانین برنامه توسعه و بودجه سالیانه استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد چهار علت ضعف عملکرد دولت‌ها، ضعف قوانین برنامه توسعه و قوانین بودجه سالیانه، تعارض منافع و وابستگی بودجه به نفت مهم‌ترین علل عدم تطابق قوانین مذکور ست. ضمناً با توجه به حلقه‌های مؤثر در موقعیت مسئله، پنج راهکار جایگزینی منابع درآمد پایدار به‌جای منابع درآمد ناپایدار، کاهش افق زمانی برنامه‌های توسعه به چهار سال، وحدت نگارندگان قوانین برنامه توسعه و بودجه سالیانه، تقویت تصمیم‌گیری مبتنی بر شواهد و تقویت نظارت از طریق طراحی سازوکار ارتباط منسجم برای تطابق بیشتر قوانین برنامه توسعه و بودجه سالیانه ارائه شد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| برنامه توسعه؛ قانون بودجه؛ تطابق قوانین برنامه توسعه و بودجه سالیانه؛ دیمتل؛ نمودارهای علی معلولی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Exploring the causes of inconsistency between development plan and annual budget laws: using DEMATEL and causal loop diagrams | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mohammadreza Zolfagharian1؛ saeid Hajihasani2؛ Hossein Amadeh3 | ||
| 1Decision Sciences and Complex Systems, Islamic Education and Management, Imam Sadiq AsTehran, Iran | ||
| 2Department of Decision Sciences and Complex Systems - Faculty of Islamic Studies and Management - Imam Sadiq University(AS) | ||
| 3Imam Sadiq (a. s) university | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Consistency between the development plans and the annual budget, due to their short-term and medium-term time horizons and, as a result, the intensity of their impact on the performance of governments, is critical across the path of growth and development of countries. This research aims to analyze the causes of inconsistency between the development plan and the annual budget of Iran and to provide suggestions for modifying the existing procedures. For this purpose, an eight-step process consisting of Dematel methods, thematic analysis, and causal loop diagrams was followed to explain the relationships between the causes of inconsistency between the rules of development plan and annual budget. The results showed that weak performance of governments, weakness in the rules of the development programs and the annual budget, conflict of interests, and dependence of the budget on oil are the most important causes for the inconsistency between the program and budget. Finally, according to the identified loops, five main recommendations are suggested to increase the alignment between the development and the budget: (1) replacement of unstable sources of income with sustainable sources, (2) reduce of the time horizon of development plans to four years, (3) unifying the authors of the program and budget, (4) strengthening evidence-based decision-making, and (5) strengthening monitoring through the design of communication mechanisms. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Development plans, Budget Law, Inconsistency between the development plans and Budget, DEMATEL, Causal Loop Diagrams | ||
| مراجع | ||
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