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مدلسازی تفسیری - ساختاری تورشهای رفتاری سرمایهگذاران بخش مسکن | ||
پژوهشهای راهبردی بودجه و مالیه | ||
دوره 5، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 17، فروردین 1403، صفحه 79-101 اصل مقاله (1.09 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
نویسندگان | ||
محمد مهدوی پور* 1؛ حسین شیرمردی احمدآباد2؛ حمید مرتضی نیا3 | ||
1دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت مالی، دانشکده مدیریت و برنامهریزی راهبردی، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین (ع)، تهران، ایران | ||
2پژوهشگر، گروه مدیریت مالی اسلامی، دانشکده مدیریت و برنامهریزی راهبردی ، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین(ع)،تهران، ایران | ||
3استادیار، گروه مدیریت مالی اسلامی، دانشکده مدیریت و برنامهریزی راهبردی ، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین (ع)، تهران، ایران | ||
تاریخ دریافت: 20 مهر 1402، تاریخ بازنگری: 18 آذر 1402، تاریخ پذیرش: 01 اسفند 1402 | ||
چکیده | ||
بنا بر مطالعات، بازار مسکن نیز همانند بازارهای مالی همیشه منطقی رفتار نمیکند و در زمانهای مختلف، خلاف قاعدههای بازار و تورشهای رفتاری متعددی در بازار مسکن مشاهده میشود. مطالعه سوگیریهای رفتاریدر کنار سایر متغیرهای تصمیمگیریهای، سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی، را بهبود خواهد بخشید. به این منظور ابتدا با مطالعات کتابخانهای، تورشهای تعریف شده جمعآوری و سپس تأثیرات تورشهای شناسایی شده با کمک روش دلفی، کشف گردید. در مرحله دوم، توسط گروه کانونی متشکل از خبرگان مالی رفتاری و مسکن، با توجه به نتایج دلفی و همچنین جامع سازی تعاریف، ده تورش تأثیرگذار بر سرمایهگذاران بازار مسکن شناسایی شد. در نهایت، مبتنی بر ماتریس خودتعاملی تهیه شده از نظرات 13 نفر از خبرگان ، مدل نهایی پنج سطحی با روش تفسیری- ساختاری ترسیم گردید که در سطح پنجم این مدل باور گرایی وفرا اعتمادی و در سطح چهارم داشته بیش نگری و در سطح سوم افسوسگریزی و تعاملات اجتماعی و خوداسنادی و در سطح دوم دیرپذیری و در سطح اول شکل گرایی، بیش واکنشی و لنگر انداختن قرار گرفتند. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
بازار مسکن؛ تورش رفتاری؛ مدلسازی تفسیری - ساختاری؛ تورم بازار مسکن؛ سوگیریهای شناختی | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
Interpretive-Structural Modeling of Behavioral Biases of Housing Sector Investors | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Mohammad Mahdavipour1؛ hossein shirmardi2؛ Hamid Morteza Nia3 | ||
1Master's degree in financial management, Faculty of Management and Strategic Planning, Imam Hossein University (AS), Tehran, Iran | ||
2Researcher, Department of Islamic Financial Management, Faculty of Management and Strategic Planning, Imam Hossein University, Tehran, Iran | ||
3Assistant Professor, Department of Islamic Financial Management, Faculty of Management and Strategic Planning, Imam Hossein University (AS), Tehran, Iran | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
Based on studies, the housing market, much like financial markets, does not always behave rationally. Various behavioral biases are observed in the housing market at different times, contrary to market norms. Studying these behavioral biases, alongside other decision variables and economic policies, will enhance understanding and improvement. To achieve this, initially, defined biases were collected through literature reviews, and the impacts of the identified biases were discovered using the Delphi method. In the second phase, a canonical group composed of experts in behavioral finance and housing identified ten influential biases on housing market investors based on Delphi results and a comprehensive definition synthesis. Finally, based on an interaction matrix derived from the opinions of 13 experts, a five-tier model was drawn using the interpretive-structural method. In this model, at the fifth level, we Confirmation Bias and Overconfidence; at the fourth level, Endowment Bias; at the third level, regret aversion, social interactions(Herd Behavior) and self-attribution; at the second level, Conservatism Bias; and at the first level, Framing Bias, overreaction, and anchoring and adjustment | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
Housing market, Behavioral turmoil, Interpretive-Structural modeling, Housing market turmoil, Cognitive biases | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 225 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 396 |