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افول آمریکا و چشم‌انداز پیکربندی ژئوپلیتیکی سازه محیطی سیستم جهانی | ||
| مطالعات راهبردی آمریکا | ||
| مقاله 1، دوره 4، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 15، دی 1403، صفحه 11-40 اصل مقاله (1.08 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.27834743/ASS.2409.1243.1 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| فرشید فرهادی* 1؛ ابراهیم متقی2؛ محمدرضا هدایتی3 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری مطالعات خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا، پژوهشگر دانشگاه جامع امام حسین(ع)، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 2استاد گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 3استادیار گروه مطالعات منطقه‌ای، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین(ع)، تهران، ایران. | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 25 شهریور 1403، تاریخ بازنگری: 10 آذر 1403، تاریخ پذیرش: 01 دی 1403 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| بحث افول آمریکا یکی از مهم‌ترین معماها در سازه محیطی سیستم جهانی است. متعاقب چنین شرایطی این دغدغه محوری و کلان پژوهش مطرح شد که با افول آمریکا پیکربندی ژئوپلیتیکی سیستم جهانی به چه صورت سامان خواهد یافت؟ در ذیل این پرسش کلان و عمده چند پرسش فرعی دیگر هم مطرح شد. از جمله این‌که ساختار قدرت جهانی به چه صورت سامان خواهد یافت؟ نظم جهانی چگونه خواهد بود؟ الگوهای کنترل در سازه محیطی سیستم چگونه خواهند بود؟ و در نهایت این‌که سازه کنترل نظم در سیستم به چه صورت خواهد بود؟ در پاسخ به پرسش اصلی پژوهش مفروض اولیه نگارندگان مقاله این بود که با افول آمریکا سازه محیطی سیستم جهانی با پیکربندی ژئوپلیتیکی نوینی در سطوح ساختار قدرت و چینش واحدها، نظم جهانی و الگوهای کنترل رفتاری و سازه کنترل نظم (مدل کنترل، اهداف کنترل، استراتژی کنترل، ابزار کنترل و ابزار کنترل ) روبه‌رو خواهد شد. پژوهش از نظر رویکرد توصیفی- تحلیلی است. گردآوری داده‌ها کتابخانه‌ای و ابزار جمع‌آوری نیز فیش‌برداری می‌باشد. روش سامان‌دهی داده‌ها از طریق «کدگذاری باز» و تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها نیز بر پایه روش علی ساختاری است. با بررسی شواهد مشخص شد که فرضیه پژوهش قابلیت انطباق دارد. متعاقب این حقیقت شواهد گویای حرکت ساختار قدرت سیستم جهانی به سوی چینش نوینی از بازیگران در قالب حرکت از ساختی تک قطبی به چند قطبی و از نظمی هژمونیک به یک نظم موازنه چندپیکری است. در سطح الگوهای رفتاری سازه محیطی سیستم در آستانه انباشت رقابت‌ها و متعاقب آن گسترش بی‌ثباتی است. افزایش نقش قدرت‌های منطقه‌ای در ژئوپلیتیک جهانی و افزایش هزینه‌های نظامی دیگر برآیند مهم افول آمریکا در سطح ساختار و نظم جهانی است. در نهایت این‌که سازه محیطی سیستم به تدریج در حال آماده شدن برای شکل‌گیری شبکه‌ای از اتحادها و همسویی‌های استراتژیک در ذیل نظم موازنه‌ای است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| افول آمریکا؛ پیکربندی ژئوپلیتیکی؛ نظم موازنه‌ای؛ همسویی استراتژیک | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| America's decline, geopolitical configuration, balancing order, strategic alignment | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| farshid farhadi1؛ Ibrahim Motaghi2؛ Mohammadreza hedayati3 | ||
| 1دانشگاه جامع امام حسین(ع) | ||
| 2Faculty of Political Science and Law, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 3Imam Hossein University | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The decline of America is one of the most important mysteries in the environmental structure of the global system. Following such circumstances, the central and major concern of the research was raised: How will the geopolitical configuration of the global system be organized with the decline of America? In response to the main research question, our initial assumption was that with the decline of America, the environmental structure of the global system will face a new geopolitical configuration at the levels of power structure and arrangement of units, global order and behavioral control patterns and the structure of order control (control model, control goals, control strategy, control tools, and control tools). The research is descriptive and analytical in terms of strategy. Data collection was library and documentary, and the collection tool was also record-taking. The data organization method was also "open coding". Data analysis was based on the causal structural method. By examining the evidence, it was determined that the research hypothesis is adaptable. Following this fact, the evidence indicates that the power structure of the global system is moving towards a new arrangement of actors in the form of moving from a unipolar to a multipolar structure and from a hegemonic order to a multi-body equilibrium order. At the level of behavioral patterns, the system's environmental structure is on the verge of accumulating competition and subsequently spreading instability. The increasing role of regional powers in global geopolitics and increasing military spending are other important outcomes of America's decline at the level of global structure and order. Finally, the system's environmental structure is gradually preparing for the formation of a network of strategic alliances and alignments under the equilibrium order. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Balanced order, strategic alignment, geopolitical configuration | ||
| مراجع | ||
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